Scenario Thinking: Future views for 2033
What does the future look like? We can't know for sure, but we can nonetheless think about it. That's what VARIO has done in a scenario thinking exercise. The result is a description of four extreme futures: It’s a fine(d) society, red greenhouse, adaptive era, high tech is cool.
This exercise was conducted in preparation of the VARIO memorandum 2024-2029.
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Exercise scenario thinking
The path to the VARIO memorandum officially began in July 2023 with a workshop 'scenario thinking'.
Advice on science, innovation, and entrepreneurship is highly dependent on what society will look like in the future, such as global trade, demographics, and climate… This cannot be easily predicted, especially in an era of continuous changes and uncertain developments. However, it is possible to gain insight into the key elements that will shape the future of science, innovation, and entrepreneurship. To this end, VARIO organized a scenario thinking workshop.
Scenario thinking is a strategic tool to identify possible extreme future scenarios. Each of these scenarios is described in a consistent plausible view of the future, and their consequences are assessed. The government can then anticipate what might happen by devising a robust strategy in response. The background report that emerged from this exercise served as inspiration for the recommendations in our VARIO memorandum.
'Toekomstbeelden voor 2033' - resultaat van de oefening scenariodenken toegelicht in een AI-video
VARIO-voorzitter Lieven Danneels vertelt via een 'avatar' over de 'Toekomstbeelden voor wetenschap, innovatie en ondernemerschap voor 2033'.